New Seat Details - Ribble South

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ribble South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	30,367	50.3%
LAB	25,106	41.6%
LIB	2,818	4.7%
UKIP	1,040	1.7%
Green	814	1.3%
OTH	238	0.4%
CON Majority	5,261	8.7%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ribble South: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ribble South

Old seat: Ribble South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Chorley	Eccleston and Mawdesley	4,964	Chorley	1,915	1,221	57	104	16	0	0	16	3,329
Chorley	Lostock	3,381	Ribble South	2,097	1,240	109	52	25	0	0	14	3,537
South Ribble	Broad Oak	3,534	Ribble South	1,366	809	185	38	18	0	0	12	2,428
South Ribble	Broadfield	3,573	Ribble South	1,024	1,652	71	45	19	0	0	19	2,830
South Ribble	Buckshaw and Worden	3,642	Ribble South	1,367	823	96	29	12	0	0	12	2,339
South Ribble	Charnock	2,785	Ribble South	947	985	86	34	16	0	0	9	2,077
South Ribble	Earnshaw Bridge	3,438	Ribble South	1,243	1,286	59	99	19	0	0	22	2,728
South Ribble	Farington East	308	Ribble South	98	98	14	4	1	0	0	1	216
South Ribble	Hoole	3,237	Ribble South	1,380	712	82	80	13	0	0	23	2,290
South Ribble	Howick and Priory	5,486	Ribble South	2,229	1,251	313	136	98	0	0	23	4,050
South Ribble	Leyland Central	3,437	Ribble South	1,200	1,301	143	45	52	0	0	11	2,752
South Ribble	Longton and Hutton West	4,550	Ribble South	2,011	859	167	102	20	0	0	19	3,178
South Ribble	Middleforth	5,370	Ribble South	1,832	2,146	160	143	38	0	0	22	4,341
South Ribble	Moss Side	3,082	Ribble South	1,250	918	63	76	17	0	0	10	2,334
South Ribble	New Longton and Hutton East	3,392	Ribble South	1,570	661	100	33	44	0	0	15	2,423
South Ribble	Seven Stars	2,998	Ribble South	971	1,377	44	81	15	0	0	13	2,501
South Ribble	St Ambrose	3,167	Ribble South	1,008	1,292	152	43	17	0	0	13	2,525
West Lancashire	Hesketh-with-Becconsall	3,133	Southport	1,403	804	42	33	12	0	0	7	2,301
West Lancashire	North Meols	3,177	Southport	1,306	874	42	83	14	0	0	11	2,330
West Lancashire	Rufford	1,637	Lancashire West	754	342	19	17	6	0	0	23	1,161
West Lancashire	Tarleton	4,437	Southport	2,009	910	70	110	20	0	0	46	3,165
	Total	72,728		28,980	21,561	2,074	1,387	492	0	0	341	54,835

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ribble Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ribble Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ribble Valley				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ribble Valley	Aighton, Bailey and Chaigley	1,134	Lancashire North	707	254	26	0	22	0	0	0	1,009
Ribble Valley	Alston and Hothersall	2,070	Lancashire North	994	412	59	0	32	0	0	0	1,497
Ribble Valley	Billington and Old Langho	2,414	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,224	464	68	0	40	0	0	0	1,796
Ribble Valley	Bowland, Newton and Slaidburn	1,074	Lancashire North	603	149	22	0	16	0	0	0	790
Ribble Valley	Chatburn	1,063	Lancashire North	498	207	25	0	15	0	0	0	745
Ribble Valley	Chipping	1,111	Lancashire North	525	192	24	0	15	0	0	0	756
Ribble Valley	Clayton-le-Dale with Ramsgreave	2,082	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,108	332	61	0	33	0	0	0	1,534
Ribble Valley	Derby and Thornley	2,394	Lancashire North	964	630	70	0	38	0	0	0	1,702
Ribble Valley	Dilworth	1,986	Lancashire North	882	507	60	0	32	0	0	0	1,481
Ribble Valley	Edisford and Low Moor	2,358	Pendle and Ribble Valley	644	677	208	0	41	0	0	0	1,570
Ribble Valley	Gisburn, Rimington	1,083	Lancashire North	533	227	28	0	17	0	0	0	805
Ribble Valley	Langho	1,890	Pendle and Ribble Valley	805	376	51	0	28	0	0	0	1,260
Ribble Valley	Littlemoor	2,371	Pendle and Ribble Valley	709	720	236	0	44	0	0	0	1,709
Ribble Valley	Mellor	2,228	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,147	333	63	0	35	0	0	0	1,578
Ribble Valley	Primrose	2,501	Pendle and Ribble Valley	714	721	258	0	46	0	0	0	1,739
Ribble Valley	Read and Simonstone	2,080	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,035	340	58	0	32	0	0	0	1,465
Ribble Valley	Ribchester	1,265	Lancashire North	608	230	38	0	21	0	0	0	897
Ribble Valley	Sabden	1,192	Pendle and Ribble Valley	431	327	38	0	19	0	0	0	815
Ribble Valley	Salthill	2,308	Pendle and Ribble Valley	924	552	231	0	46	0	0	0	1,753
Ribble Valley	St Mary's	2,274	Pendle and Ribble Valley	860	520	212	0	40	0	0	0	1,632
Ribble Valley	Waddington and West Bradford	2,527	Lancashire North	1,208	345	64	0	35	0	0	0	1,652
Ribble Valley	Whalley	3,078	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,593	499	97	0	50	0	0	0	2,239
Ribble Valley	Wilpshire	2,077	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,044	340	54	0	30	0	0	0	1,468
Ribble Valley	Wiswell and Pendleton	1,244	Pendle and Ribble Valley	485	215	27	0	15	0	0	0	742
South Ribble	Bamber Bridge East	3,184	Ribble South	1,140	1,337	110	0	56	0	0	0	2,643
South Ribble	Bamber Bridge West	3,006	Ribble South	1,070	1,242	109	0	57	0	0	0	2,478
South Ribble	Coupe Green and Gregson Lane	3,449	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,576	662	106	0	133	0	0	0	2,477
South Ribble	Farington East	2,483	Ribble South	780	739	159	0	37	0	0	0	1,715
South Ribble	Farington West	2,844	Ribble South	1,160	792	188	0	47	0	0	0	2,187
South Ribble	Lostock Hall	4,913	Ribble South	1,918	1,647	181	0	85	0	0	0	3,831
South Ribble	New Longton and Hutton East	237	Ribble South	107	41	11	0	8	0	0	0	167
South Ribble	Samlesbury and Walton	3,054	Pendle and Ribble Valley	1,325	788	91	0	50	0	0	0	2,254
South Ribble	Walton-le-Dale East	3,172	Ribble South	1,231	944	107	0	48	0	0	0	2,330
South Ribble	Walton-le-Dale West	3,283	Ribble South	1,368	954	109	0	52	0	0	0	2,483
	Total	75,429		31,920	18,715	3,249	0	1,315	0	0	0	55,199

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ribble Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ribble South

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ribble South
Chorley	Lostock	4,887	Ribble South	2,097	1,240	109	52	25	0	0	14	3,537
South Ribble	Bamber Bridge East	3,732	Ribble Valley	1,140	1,337	110	0	56	0	0	0	2,643
South Ribble	Bamber Bridge West	3,500	Ribble Valley	1,070	1,242	109	0	57	0	0	0	2,478
South Ribble	Broad Oak	3,353	Ribble South	1,366	809	185	38	18	0	0	12	2,428
South Ribble	Broadfield	3,909	Ribble South	1,024	1,652	71	45	19	0	0	19	2,830
South Ribble	Buckshaw and Worden	3,232	Ribble South	1,367	823	96	29	12	0	0	12	2,339
South Ribble	Charnock	2,867	Ribble South	947	985	86	34	16	0	0	9	2,077
South Ribble	Earnshaw Bridge	3,767	Ribble South	1,243	1,286	59	99	19	0	0	22	2,728
South Ribble	Farington East	297	Ribble South	98	98	14	4	1	0	0	1	216
South Ribble	Farington East	2,422	Ribble Valley	780	739	159	0	37	0	0	0	1,715
South Ribble	Farington West	3,090	Ribble Valley	1,160	792	188	0	47	0	0	0	2,187
South Ribble	Hoole	3,165	Ribble South	1,380	712	82	80	13	0	0	23	2,290
South Ribble	Howick and Priory	5,596	Ribble South	2,229	1,251	313	136	98	0	0	23	4,050
South Ribble	Leyland Central	3,802	Ribble South	1,200	1,301	143	45	52	0	0	11	2,752
South Ribble	Longton and Hutton West	4,390	Ribble South	2,011	859	167	102	20	0	0	19	3,178
South Ribble	Lostock Hall	5,412	Ribble Valley	1,918	1,647	181	0	85	0	0	0	3,831
South Ribble	Middleforth	5,997	Ribble South	1,832	2,146	160	143	38	0	0	22	4,341
South Ribble	Moss Side	3,224	Ribble South	1,250	918	63	76	17	0	0	10	2,334
South Ribble	New Longton and Hutton East	3,347	Ribble South	1,570	661	100	33	44	0	0	15	2,423
South Ribble	New Longton and Hutton East	236	Ribble Valley	107	41	11	0	8	0	0	0	167
South Ribble	Seven Stars	3,454	Ribble South	971	1,377	44	81	15	0	0	13	2,501
South Ribble	St Ambrose	3,490	Ribble South	1,008	1,292	152	43	17	0	0	13	2,525
South Ribble	Walton-le-Dale East	3,290	Ribble Valley	1,231	944	107	0	48	0	0	0	2,330
South Ribble	Walton-le-Dale West	3,509	Ribble Valley	1,368	954	109	0	52	0	0	0	2,483
	Total	83,968		30,367	25,106	2,818	1,040	814	0	0	238	60,383

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ribble South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Seema Kennedy (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	83,968
Turnout:	71.9%

Ribble South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ribble South: Overview

Introduction